Why the IPCC calls for action within three years to protect the “living” world

It is a phrase that goes unnoticed. In their new report released on Monday, April 4, scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warn that action must be taken before 2025 to control global warming and maintain a habitable world. “Under the conditions we estimate, controlling global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, greenhouse gas emissions should peak before 2025.”They write in the press release that comes with the report.

This 1.5 degree Celsius is in line with the very ambitious purpose of the Paris Climate Agreement. Signed in 2015, This deal This promises to control the signatories “Measures to control global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, raising the average global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”. This purpose was not randomly selected: as shown by The same is the previous statement of the IPCC, Damage caused by global warming – heat waves, sea level rise, extreme events – if less than 1.5 degrees Celsius. For some parts of the world, stocks are important: “The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius is death for us”, Announced in COP26 Maldives Environment Minister Shauna Aminath.

The world today is not on the right track. Global warming is already estimated at 1.09 degrees Celsius and greenhouse gases produced by human activities (industry, energy, transportation, agriculture, housing, etc.) and fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) continue to increase. Speed ​​slowed (+ 2.3% to + 1.3% per annum) According to a recent report, current policies are leading us directly to the catastrophic warming of 3.2 degrees Celsius in 2100.

To change course, we must act quickly. This is the meaning of the three-year period provided by the IPCC. Scientists have studied various emission sequences that control the 1.5 செல் C warming. Those who allow themselves to be below this exceptional bar, without crossing it temporarily or to a very low level, will see an emission peak in 2025 and fall to 43% by 2030. 2 ° C

In fact, in the scenarios studied, only those that do not calculate the peak of greenhouse gas emissions between 2020 and 2025 will lead to warming of 3 ° C (peak between 2030 and 2035), 4 ° C (2070-2075). Or beyond (2080-2085). “We want to control global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius now or neverJim Schia, co-editor of the latest IPCC report, commented. Without immediate and profound reduction in all sectors, this would not be possible. “