The far-right Vox party may join the next government

Spanish voters go to the polls on Sunday in an election that could bring the far right to power for the first time since the dictatorship of Francisco Franco.

Polls published before the vote predicted a Conservative victory, with the Partido Popular set to gain around 34% support – which would not be enough to form a majority government.

Some political analysts expect the People’s Party to unite with the far-right Vox, which could be the third largest political force in this election and gain more than 10% of the vote.

“The most likely outcome is a coalition government in which the People’s Party leads and controls most key ministries, with Vox as the junior partner,” Federico Santi, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, said in a note on Wednesday.

He added that this scenario “will be somewhat positive in the market, as reflected in the prices of Spanish assets during the past few weeks, with a modest performance of Spanish stock indices compared to their European counterparts, while the spread of sovereign credit against Germany remained broadly stable.”

The conservative PP and the far-right Vox had previously concluded political pacts to govern in three of Spain’s regional authorities and had others in smaller towns.

However, their relationship looks more like a forced cohabitation than a natural partnership.

In a televised debate before the election, PP leader Alberto Figo indicated that he would govern with Vox, if he needed their votes. Conservative party members raised concerns about Vox’s anti-LGBT rights and anti-immigration policies.

Vox has also been criticized by mainstream politicians for opposing abortion rights and climate change denial, among other measures.

When arguing against incumbent socialist leader Pedro Sánchez, Figo said his rival could not lecture other politicians on conventions. Sánchez made deals with separatist parties to secure a working parliamentary majority.

Tacho Rufino, an economist at the University of Seville, told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed Thursday that this election is less about economic issues than cultural ones — including nationalism, LGBT rights and climate change.

For his part, Sánchez has been criticized for pardoning pro-regional politicians, for example. During his tenure, there were also issues with the “just yes means yes” sexual consent law, which reduced the service time for many convicted rapists through a loophole.

Sunday’s vote may also be affected by climate change, as it is the first election to take place during the summer. Spain is one of the southern European countries that has experienced a major heat wave in recent days.