Strong wage and job growth keeps the Fed on track for a big rate hike

The surprisingly strong June employment report reinforced that the US labor market remains historically strong even as recession warnings have reached their peak. But this development, despite the good news for the Biden administration, is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on its aggressive course to increase interest rates as it tries to cool the economy and slow inflation.

Today’s world of rapidly rising prices is a complex one for economic policymakers, who worry that an overheating labor market could potentially lead to economic growth. Constantly exacerbating inflation. Rather than viewing the growing demand for labor as a undiluted good, they hope to engineer a gradual and controlled slowdown in employment and wage growth, both of which remain extraordinarily strong.

Friday’s report provided early signs that the needed cooling is taking hold as job and wage increases eased slightly. But employment and earnings have remained strong enough to reinforce the view among Federal Reserve officials that the labor market, like much of the economy, is out of control: Employers still want far more workers than is available.

The new data is likely to keep central bankers on track to increase interest rates at their meeting later this month Try to restrain Consumer and business spending and forcing the economy back into equilibrium.

“We’re starting to see those first signs of slowing, and that’s what we need,” Rafael Bostik, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in an interview with CNBC after the report was released. However, he called the wage data reassuring “only slightly” and said that we are “starting to move in the right direction, but there is still a lot to do, and a lot more to see”.

Federal Reserve officials began raising interest rates from nearly zero in March in an effort to make borrowing of many types more expensive. Last month, the central bank raised the interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, the largest One increase since 1994.

Central bankers usually adjust their policy in only quarter-point increments, but they’ve been picking up the pace as inflation has proven alarmingly fast and stubborn. While Fed policymakers said they would discuss a move of 0.5 or 0.75 percentage points at their July 26-27 meeting, Chorus of officials in recent days They said they would support a second move of 0.75 percentage point given the pace of inflation and the strength of the labor market.

As the Fed tries to put the brakes on the economy, Wall Street economists warned it could push it into a recession instead – and the Biden administration has been avoiding statements that one of them has already arrived. a Downturn in overall growth dataThe slump in the housing market and slowing factory orders have raised concerns that America is on the brink of deflation.

Employment data strongly contradicted this narrative, because the shrinking economy is not adding jobs, let alone at the current fast pace.

Biden celebrated the report on Friday, saying that “our critics said the economy was too weak” but that “we’ve still added more jobs in the past three months than any administration in nearly 40 years.”

Private sector voices agreed that the employment report showed an economy that does not appear to be deteriorating.

“Wage growth remains high and job loss rates low,” Nick Bunker, director of economic research at job site Indeed, wrote in a reaction note. “We’ll see another recession someday, but today is not that day.”

The paradoxical moment in the economy — with prices rising rapidly, economic growth shrinking and the unemployment rate hovering near a 50-year low — challenged Mr. Biden, who struggled to express sympathy for consumers suffering from high prices as he sought. Credit for the power of restoring jobs.

Biden’s approval ratings plummeted as price growth accelerated. Confidence has taken a particularly clear hit in recent months amid rising gas prices, which topped $5 a gallon on average earlier this summer.

On Friday, Mr. Biden emphasized that fighting inflation was his top economic priority while also praising recent progress in the labor market.

“I know times are tough,” Biden said in public statements. “The prices are too high. Families face a cost-of-living crisis. But today’s economic news underscores the fact that my economic plan is moving this country in a better direction.”

But unfortunately for management and workers across America, addressing the higher prices is likely to come at a certain cost to the labor market.

With price hikes rattling consumers at the gas pump and in the grocery aisle, the Fed believes it needs to get inflation under control quickly in order to put the economy on a path toward healthy, sustainable growth.

The Fed’s tool for achieving that long-term positive outcome works by inflicting short-term economic pain. By making expensive money to borrow, the central bank can slow home purchases and business expansions, which in turn will slow hiring and increase wages. Since businesses and families have fewer dollars to spend, the theory goes, demand will better match supply and prices will stop skyrocketing.

Officials expect unemployment to eventually rise as interest rates rise and the economy weakens, although they hope it will only rise slightly.

Fed policymakers still hope to engineer what they often call a “soft landing,” in which hiring and payment gradually slow, but without plunging the economy into a painful recession.

But pulling it off won’t be easy — and officials are willing to clamp down hard if that is what it takes to tame inflation.

“Price stability is absolutely essential for the economy to realize its potential and maintain maximum employment over the medium term,” John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said in a speech in Puerto Rico on Friday. “I want to be clear: This is not an easy task. We must be firm, and we cannot fall short.”

Stocks fell after the employment figures were released, likely because investors saw them as a sign that the Federal Reserve would continue to constrain the economy.

“The massive momentum in the economy to me suggests that we can move at 75 basis points in the next meeting and not see much protracted damage to the broader economy,” Bostick said on Friday.

Federal Reserve officials are keeping a close eye on wage data in particular. Average hourly earnings rose 5.1 percent in the year to June, down slightly from 5.3 percent in the previous month. wages for non-managers It jumped 6.4 percent from the previous year.

While this pace of increase is slowing somewhat, it is still much higher than usual — and could keep inflation high if it continues, as employers charge more to cover rising labor costs.

“Wages are not primarily responsible for the inflation we are seeing, but going forward, they are going to be very important, especially in the service sector,” said Jerome H. Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman. In his press conference in June.

He later added, “If you don’t have price stability, the economy won’t work the way it’s supposed to.” “It will do no good to people – their wages will be devoured.”

Inflation has been above the Fed’s target for more than a year. The PCE Index That measure excluding food and energy prices, which the Federal Reserve monitors for underlying inflation trends, rose 4.7 percent in the year through May.

This is the least dramatic of the major inflation measures. the prices By 8.6 percent In the year to May according to the CPI, and the June number, due next week, may show further recovery.

Central bankers are increasingly concerned that higher costs will seep into consumer inflation expectations, making it difficult to wipe out price gains. Once workers and companies begin to believe that prices will rise rapidly year after year, they may change their behavior, looking for larger wage increases and more regular price adjustments. This could make inflation a more permanent feature of the US economy.

The Fed wants to prevent this outcome. If it raises interest rates by 0.75 percentage points this month, that will raise interest rates to a range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent, and Officials noted They are likely to raise borrowing costs by another percentage point by the end of the year.

“Supply and demand will be rebalanced, and inflation will return to our long-term target of 2 percent,” Williams said. “This could take some time and could be a bumpy road.”