Moscow deployed troops to the Kursk region after a Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory, raising big questions for the Kremlin and giving Kyiv a big opportunity.
“Given the significant disparity in combat capabilities in Russia’s favor on the battlefield, Ukrainian forces appear to be shifting to, or at least intensifying, unconventional warfare, bringing the war deeper into Russia,” Rebecca Kofler, a military intelligence strategist and author of “The Putin Playbook,” told Fox News Digital.
“Zelensky’s latest surprise incursion into the Kursk region is likely aimed at demonstrating to Putin that as long as there is no peace in Ukraine, the Russian people will not sleep in peace either,” Kofler said. “Kyiv is also likely seeking to strengthen its negotiating position in a potential peace settlement with Moscow.”
Russia has drawn from an unspecified set of operational reserves, including units of conscripts, former Wagner members and a number of special forces, including the Chechen special forces unit Akhmat, according to an online newspaper. Ukrainian Pravda.
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Ukraine launched airstrikes on Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk on Tuesday and shows no signs of slowing down four days later. The events have put the Russian military leadership under fire for intelligence and tactical lapses that allowed such an attack to take place.
In this pool photo released by Russia’s state-owned Sputnik news agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) flanked by Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov (right) holds a meeting with heads of law enforcement agencies on the situation in the Kursk region, Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation Alexander Bortnikov (left) and Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu in Moscow, August 7, 2024. (Alexei Babushkin/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 100 square miles of territory, The Washington Post reported.
A Russian military blogger speculated that Russia had drawn on its forces, which had been massed for an offensive in the northern Kharkiv region.
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A retired U.S. Army sergeant told Fox News Digital that Russia and Ukraine are back to a stalemate — which has plagued both sides every year since the invasion began in 2022 — but Russia has concentrated so many of its forces on the front that any strike along the border will test Russian forces to the core.
The sergeant major noted that Ukraine took a calculated risk by attacking near Kursk to see if Russia could absorb the pressure, citing last year’s “Wagner debacle” when then-Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin took a small force and advanced 125 miles from Moscow with seemingly little resistance.
A screenshot from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry shows Russian forces launching a missile attack, targeting military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area near Kursk Oblast, Russia, on August 8, 2024. (Russian Defense Ministry / Distribution / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
“Look how far the Wagner Group has come,” the expert said. “I think they could have reached Moscow if Putin hadn’t made some kind of deal that stopped them… I bet that event set the wheels in motion for this plan in Kursk.”
He added that moving the war closer to the Russian people might upset them because they feel the war has hit their homeland, and might create significant domestic unrest for the Russian government, creating two fronts for the Kremlin and dividing the government’s focus.
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“There is a massive Ukrainian operation online – possibly on the ground – trying to stir up protests against the war. All of this puts pressure on Putin,” the expert said.
Up to 400 Russian soldiers were reportedly killed in a single HIMARS missile strike in the Kursk region as they moved to fight the Ukrainian army on August 9. (Image courtesy of East2West)
Some Russian military bloggers have expressed concerns that the incursion could be a major distraction and drain significant resources to restore it. Kovler warned that these attacks, rather than weakening Putin’s position, could actually strengthen his claims over Ukraine.
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Kovler claimed that Putin “will use this opportunity to tell the Russian people that this is exactly why Ukraine must be crushed and decisively defeated. This is why they must continue to make sacrifices by going to the front lines to fight against the Ukrainians.”
“The Russian media is already blaming the United States for this Ukrainian operation,” Kofler said. “So this vicious circle will continue, bringing more and more destruction and increasing the risk of escalation into a wider war in Europe that could drag NATO and the United States in.”
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