A rise in chocolate prices is inevitable in 2024 and here are the reasons why

From 2024 the French will pay more for their chocolate bars. And for good reason: the cost of production inputs, namely cocoa and sugar, is rising, which will have a lasting impact on the market. This situation results from the effects of climate change that the planet is currently experiencing.

If you say that the price of chocolate will be higher because of the heavy rains in Ivory Coast, you will be laughed at. And yet, this is the reality. Cocoa and sugar are the two main ingredients in making chocolate. However, these two commodities are experiencing a dizzying rise in global prices.

Cocoa is at its highest price since 1979

There is particular tension in the cocoa market, whose production has suffered significantly recently, particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Two countries alone account for more than 60% of world production. The harvest suffered a significant decline due to unfavorable weather, particularly marked by unusually heavy rains.

So the climatic conditions do not encourage a good harvest, prevent the plantations from flowering, and guarantee that the fruits are dried well. This significantly reduced annual production and led to a rise in commodity prices, for which the December futures contract reached $37.86 a tonne. reports in New York (its highest level since 1979) on Oct. 23 BFM Porsche.

El Nino dries up India and increases sugar prices

Sugar, another essential ingredient in chocolate production, has also recorded a significant increase in its price. The FAO Food Price Index provides that “ 50.6 points (46.6%) increase compared to last year There, too, there is talk of lower production in producing countries, particularly India, Mexico and Thailand, due to unfavorable weather conditions.

While cocoa production was affected by rain and wind in West Africa, sugar production was adversely affected by extreme heat and drought due to El Nino weather effects raging along the coast of the Indian Ocean. Sugarcane cultivation has been severely affected due to lack of rain. As long-term climate forecasts predict the persistence of these weather disturbances, the negative effects on agricultural production will be long-lasting. So they will continue to weigh on costs that have already been hit globally by inflation.

Towards a mechanical increase in the price of chocolate in an absence shrinkage

This is why the price of cocoa- and sugar-based end products like chocolate cannot escape mechanical increases like all chocolate products. Unless the producers choose not to “contraction” Some items. An alternative is to keep prices the same but reduce the weight of products to compensate for the shortage.