Tuesday, December 17, 2024

A rare rain episode in the Sahara: up to 5 months of rainfall is expected

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More than 130 people were killed when a dam collapsed on Saturday in Arbad, north of the city of Port Sudan in Red Sea state. This exceptional rain will also affect a part of the south of the Sahara (Sahel) in the coming days.

Sahara: A desert climate

The Sahara, covering more than 9.2 million square kilometers, is mostly dry due to a subtropical high pressure system that prevents precipitation from forming. However, a few thousand years ago, this area was lush with lakes and rivers before becoming a desert following global climate changes.

The area near the equator is called the tropical rain belt Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)It greatly affects the climate of tropical countries and can also affect the formation of tropical storms. Now, as it has moved north, the Sahara has seen rare rains. This change may also have implications for the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.

In the next 15 days it will rain for a few months



Exceptional rainfall in the Sahel © The Weather Channel

In general, more than half of the Sahara receives less than 25 mm of rain per year. However, the latest weather forecast shows significant rainfall covering much of the desert over a two-week period, with some areas receiving months worth of rain in a few days. Thus, some places typically expect to receive 500% of the rainfall in late August and early September, or locally the equivalent of 5 years of rainfall. This type of event has a return period of about 10 years, which is exceptional.

Such weather conditions highlight potential instability in the global climate system. In the 1980s, the Sahel again suffered from severe drought, and in recent years we have seen more rainfall in this tropical region. Remember that the Sahara was green with lakes 7000 years ago. Further research is underway to understand the potential impacts of these anomalies on fall or winter weather in the United States and Europe.

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