“High-potential scenario”: After Kursk, could Ukraine land in Crimea?

Time has passed but the fog of war continues to thicken. More than twenty days after the Ukrainian army entered Russia, its mission in the Kursk region remains a mystery. One of the main theses is a future territorial exchange with Russia to recover land currently occupied by Moscow. But Ukraine occupied only about 1,000 km² when Russia annexed 125,000 km² of Ukrainian territory this Monday.

The other possibility is to draw Russian brigades towards Kursk to relieve a front line on the brink of breakdown in the Donbass. The town of Pokrovsk, vital to the logistics of the Ukrainian army, is under daily threat from the Russians, who continue to exploit the Ocheretyne breakthrough achieved in April. The Moscow army would be about fifteen kilometers from the first districts of Pokrovsk.

Also According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).Despite the attack on Kursk, the General Staff did not slacken its efforts. Russian regiments were indeed transferred from the Ukrainian front to the Kursk region, but these were the 51st VTV Brigade stationed at Chiversk, elements of the 810th and 155th Marine Infantry in Kharkiv, or the 11th VTV Brigade. Who is Chasiv?

“pure speculation”

« Russian military command is resisting pressure to redeploy forces away from its high-priority offensive effort toward Pokrovsk. », analyzes ISW. To convince him to withdraw units from Pokrovsk, Ukrainian civil servants, if they had the resources, would have to strike hard. Either always towards Kursk, or somewhere else. And many look towards Kherson and the Crimea.

This last possibility is indeed a pipe dream for those watching the conflict in favor of Ukraine. According to historian and reserve officer Stephen Adrant, Ukraine could prepare an offensive toward Crimea, “ Cross the Dnieper and land on the peninsula ». « It seems to me that this situation has the greatest potential, although this situation is undoubtedly the least likely because it is so dangerous and so complicated. », he writes. Crimea has been subject to regular strikes against its anti-aircraft defenses and radars for months. As for its fleet damaged by drones, it has retreated to Russia.

The territory is so poorly defended on the ground that the Russian army is positioned forward facing Kherson. ” Of course, this idea concerns the Ukrainian ability to field amphibious assault forces and then insert maneuver forces. We know that some regiments are “missing”. But for the rest, we’re left with pure speculation “, he notes. It’s hard to imagine Ukraine, for example, having significant reserves for such an attack, even after committing more than 10,000 soldiers to Kursk. But who knows?

Kursk, a diversion before the main offensive?

Clément Molin, co-director of the think tank Atom Mundi and cartographer of this battle, wrote a few days ago that several regiments “ missing » On the Ukrainian side for several weeks. Is imagining secret products enough to launch a new attack? last weekHowever he confirmed these regiments “ Had to practice », without certainty.

Last week, the Ukrainian army carried out several operations southwest of Kherson and Kinburn point on the Black Sea coast. This is not the first time such measures have been taken, and their purpose is unclear. Either way, Kinburn’s tip is on the road to the Crimea. Finally, although Ukraine officially received its first F-16s at the end of July, they haven’t been seen much on the front so far. Another asset that Ukrainian civil servants have in its game?

Russian ultranationalist Igor Strelkov, who is currently detained in Russia, pledged in mid-August that the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region “ A diversion “. According to him, the main attack will be aimed at Crimea, where all Ukrainian reserves and F-16 aircraft will be stationed. So far, there is nothing to confirm that Ukraine has the necessary resources to make a breakthrough on the Dnieper or to land in Crimea. But while Ukraine is locking its communications on its objective, Anything is possible. This is what Ukrainians want Russians to think…