Cyclone Mocha formed in the Bay of Bengal and made potentially catastrophic landfall

Landfall should make a major and potentially catastrophic tropical cyclone.

The current drop zone is likely to focus on northern Myanmar, also known as Burma, near the Bangladesh border. This region is known for its massive tropical cyclone disasters – with an unusual storm surge hitting densely populated areas – and one in the thick of war.

Mocha was Analyze it as the wind continues Around 58 mph (50 knots) on Thursday as its main period of intensification begins.

Sit over existing water It runs at or over 86 degrees (30°C), which is warmer than many to support a high storm, Mocha has been already producing waves up to 25 feet and growing.

And she wrote, “Al-Mokha will follow the direction towards the northeast … for the rest of the forecasts.” Joint Hurricane Warning Center (JTWC) in its Thursday update. They state that the landing is likely to occur “south of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border this weekend.”

Given minimal wind shear – damaging storms that can impede development – Mocha is expected to become what is locally referred to as a severe cyclonic storm within the next 12 to 24 hours, with additional and possibly rapid strengthening continuing thereafter.

official forecast from Indian Meteorological Department The Joint Hurricane Warning Center is giving the storm gusts of at least 100 to 115 mph (85 to 100 knots) at landfall. Given the favorable environment of warm full waters, minimal disruptive shear and relatively slow motion, these solutions are very likely to be on the conservative side.

As is often the case with tropical cyclones, Mocha’s path is more certain than intense. Since the storm is traveling along the perimeter of a strong high-pressure dome, any shifts in the landing site are likely to be small. It is difficult to identify factors related to severity.

Some of the best weather models for tropical cyclones indicate that a much stronger storm than officially predicted is likely as it approaches shore. For example, recent production of the HWRF hurricane model showed pressures dropping to nearly 900 millibars at peak, which would easily equate to Category 4 or 5 equivalent intensity.

Even if Mocha peaked over the water and then weakened on its way to the coast, impacts such as deadly storms and big waves, plus heavy rain, would already endure.

People close to the landing area and in low-lying areas throughout the area should complete preparations or evacuations as necessary. More than 10,000 people have already left in search of shelter, according to Myanmar now.

Tragic tornado history plus constant war

The area is known for large storm surges, and sea level rise as the storm passes. a A recent article from an expert sums it up nicely.

The Bay of Bengal hosts only 4% of all tropical cyclones globally. Roxy Matthew Cole wrote, a climatologist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “[B]More than 80% of tornado deaths are from this region.”

The main reasons for such a large number of losses are social and economic and because the northern bay in particular is densely populated. But the water is also typically warm, which is suitable for rapid condensation. Climate change only adds fuel to the fire.

Then there is the simple geography of the Gulf.

The bay is wide in the south – where storms enter – and gathers at a point in the north, so that storms are exacerbated by the flow of water. the ramp from ocean to land It is also very young, with a regular large set of tides amid large river deltas. All factors promote large storms that are heading inward.

his bay long history from severe storms. Amphan in 2020 was the latest of these supernatural disasters. Having reached the fifth category, I reached the shore in the northern bay. In 2017, a Category 1 Mora came ashore near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, killing more than 150 people.

In May 2008, Cyclone Nargis became the second deadliest tropical cyclone on record and the deadliest in Myanmar. It is believed to have killed over 135,000, with the majority of deaths occurring in that country.

In this case, another factor is the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. With nearly two million internally displaced persons and another million refugees, a large population could be at additional risk. land area to south of the Bangladesh border Historically it was an active spot for fighting, and there Several giant camps for the displaced in the area.